Gillespie leading by 3 points in new 0ptimus/Firehouse survey
Firehouse Strategies teamed up with our friends at 0ptimus to learn more about next week’s governor election in Virginia.
Key takeaway: Gillespie has a narrow lead headed into the final weekend.
Over the last two nights (11/1 & 11/2), we did a big survey of over 1,600 Virginia voters. According to 0ptimus’ model, Ed Gillespie is leading Ralph Northam 40.4% to 37.4%. (MOE is +/- 2.4%)
It’s worth noting that this is a difficult race to poll because VA party composition is super volatile election to election. If turnout reflects 2016 levels, instead of assuming a 2013-like composition, then we have Northam winning by +1.5.
Note on Methodology: Optimus conducted automated interview opinion reads of likely voters ending on the dates above, each lasting two nights. Likely voters were targeted for interview based on voter history and 0ptimus modeling for who would turnout in the election.