April 23, 2020

Coronavirus Tracking Update


This week’s installment of the Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus Analytics coronavirus tracking survey highlights how the economic impact of the epidemic has disproportionately affected Hispanics and African Americans. Our numbers also show a positive uptick for public outlook on the economy since the president announced his guidelines for reopening state economies last week. Details on these key findings and trendlines for today’s data points are presented below. Look out for updated numbers on Thursday on our website:


Key Points

  • Among all Americans, 21% are working from home and 13% say they have been laid off. Among all racial groups, Hispanics and African Americans have been hit the hardest, with 23% of Hispanics and 19% of African Americans reporting being laid off.


  • We currently find 47% of Americans think the US economy is going to get worse over the next month, a more optimistic outlook than a week ago (54%). A higher share of those without a college degree (55%) or postgraduate degree (53%) believe it will get worse compared to those with some college (47%) or HS or less (42%).


  • Among likely voters, Biden continues to lead against Trump, with the margin easing down to 8 points (52% Biden vs 44% Trump). Biden’s deficit among white respondents is -5, which is a notable improvement over Hilary Clinton’s 2016 performance.


“Our modeling projects that unemployment will climb more this week and African Americans and Hispanics will continue to be the hardest hit.”
– Scott Tranter, 0ptimus Analytics

“Good news, bad news. The good news is that voters have grown slightly more confident about the economy since last week with a 7 point gain. The bad news is that 47% expect the economy even worse next month.”
– Terry Sullivan, Firehouse Strategies

Full Results

The full toplines, crosstabs, and methodology can be found on our GitHub page here: https://github.com/optimus-forecasting-and-polling/Firehouse-0ptimus-Coronavirus-Tracking