FIREHOUSE PROJECT DIRECTOR DIEGO GOMEZ PENS OP-ED IN TOWNHALL
October 17, 2024
Diego Gomez, Project Director, Firehouse Strategies
As Hispanic Heritage Month draws to a close, another narrative is taking shape as we approach Election Day: the rapidly growing influence of Hispanic voters. For years, political analysts predicted the Hispanic community would remain a reliable base for Democrats. However, recent election cycles have shown a quiet yet significant shift underway, and if Republicans can capitalize on this trend, it could reshape the 2024 election and beyond.
Consider the political realignment in the last four years. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump made unexpected gains among Hispanics, securing nearly 40 percent of their vote nationwide – the highest share for a Republican since Bush in 2004. In battleground states, he won nearly half of Florida’s Hispanic vote, largely due to support from Cuban Americans, and improved his standing with Mexican Americans in Texas, especially in the historically Democratic Rio Grande Valley. The 2022 midterms only deepened this trend, as Republicans outperformed expectations in heavily Hispanic districts.
Fast forward to today, and the GOP’s growing appeal among Hispanic voters shows no signs of slowing down. A recent Marist National poll shows roughly half of Hispanics expressing support for Donald Trump in the 2024 race, signaling that Hispanics may emerge as the pivotal swing voters. With more than 36 million eligible Hispanic voters – 15% of the electorate – the stakes could not be higher. In an election likely to be decided by narrow margins, even a modest shift among Hispanic voters in states like Arizona and Nevada could determine the next occupant of the White House.